The Future of Trade 2050 — a Perspective from the Private Sector
The Future of Trade 2050 — a Perspective from the Private Sector provides a glimpse of the changes and challenges the world will be facing in 2050. Its purpose is to start a conversation and to provoke thinking amongst those who are involved in reshaping global supply chains and the overall trajectory of trade.
Over the past 30 years we have enjoyed a comparatively secure trade environment. However, the world is now undergoing a time of transition and by 2050 the shape and nature of our commercial transactions will be very different to those we are experiencing today. We see three directional, interconnected and convergent certainties that will underpin and dictate progress:
- Shifting Power and Influence
- The impact of Data, Automation and AI
- The Climate and Biodiversity Crises
A new East-South versus West-North dynamic is taking shape. It prioritises diversification and supply chain resilience and the emergence of non-aligned nations keen to benefit from the shifts in trade power. Coincidentally the speed and scale of technology innovation is transforming how, what and where we trade. By 2050 and powered by AI, advanced robotics, cognitive automation, synthetic biology, 3 and 4 D printing will increasingly take on tasks that were once performed by people. This manufacturing reconfiguration will mean trade will become increasingly service oriented both in low skilled customer service roles and in high skilled knowledge occupations such as finance or education. Finally, the effects of the growing environmental and ecological crisis, although unevenly distributed, are likely to impact us all.
The convergence of these shifts present considerable challenges. A great re-industrialisation is needed for some countries and companies to adjust their supply chains to become more resilient, to remain competitive and to increase their national security. The infrastructure for this will be expensive and will come at significant cost for those countries already struggling to cope with rising levels of debt; indeed, the investment required may be difficult to reach or sustain. Equally costly AI, automation and self-learning machines and supply webs will require appropriate access to huge data sets. To benefit, nations will have to share datasets and agree on common protocols. In an increasingly polarising world this may well be a stumbling block.
If we get it right, however, the opportunity to create a global system which enables a better trading environment for all is within reach. Some elements to achieve this objective may sound simple, dull even, but they are, in fact, complex. If adopted, they will have a transformative effect; frictionless borders and automated end to end transparent processing is a good example. Other elements, such as off planet trading may seem, from today’s perspective, a bit far-fetched. Regardless, delivering the benefits optimally will require concerted collaboration, time and attention from many stakeholders.
