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Title: Active Elderly
Author: Future Agenda | https://www.futureagenda.org
Permalink:
https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/active-elderly/
A wealthier, healthier older generation increasingly want and engage in leading more active lives, taking up new sports, having third-generation careers and becoming more politically involved
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), by 2020 there will be over a billion elderly people on the planet with 700 million of these in the developing world. In China the proportion of elderly people is on course to double in a period of just thirty years between 2000 and 2030: In France a similar increase took 115 years. In the US, researchers expect the number of people over 65 to move from just under 40 million today to pass 70 million by 2030. Although, as life expectancy continues to lengthen, the number of very old people will rise and so the burden on healthcare systems will increase, for the 55 to 75 age group, improved healthcare and healthier living will result in more active lives than preceding generations. Active ageing is on the rise and, with it, some fundamental changes in society, ranging from employment and parenting to leisure and politics. By 2020, some see that 55 will be the new middle age and many of us will lead independent active lives until our late seventies.
By 2020 there will definitely be a greater proportion of older workers in the workforce than today: experience will be valued as well as economic contribution. Organisations are increasingly aware of the loss of collective memory that occurs when people retire and some, such as P&G, General Mills, Eli Lilly and Boeing, have been using programmes such as yourencore.com to tap into this resource. At the same time, attitudes to continued work are shifting, with up to half of employees increasingly keen to keep working on a full- or part-time basis after retirement age. Third-generation career workers are regarded as knowledgeable, flexible and experienced workers and are rising higher on the wish-list of many organisations. So we can clearly expect continued participation beyond 65 to be on the agenda for more employers by 2020.
What makes this pretty well certain in many countries is the economic pressure to keep people working, delay retirement and so reduce the pension gap. At the extreme in Japan, with an aging population and one of the lowest birth rates in the world, the number of workers is on course to reduce from 66 million to 56 million over the next twenty years. With gross government debt heading towards 250% of GDP by 2015, Japan clearly needs people to stay in work and remain economically active for longer. Many other developed economies face a similar, though not so extreme, situation. In Germany, for instance, where the country’s over-65 population is expected to double by 2035, the retirement age is rising from 64 to 67 starting in 2012 and politicians are talking about 70 as a long-term target; Taiwan recently increased its retirement age from 60 to 65; due to increasing debt, Greece is planning to shift its official retirement age from 61 to 63 by 2015; and even France is adding a couple of years to its pensionable age by 2018. In 2010, the UK government announced that, as well as bringing women into line with men in terms of working life, retirement age will increase to 66 by 2016, will go up to 68 by 2048 and may also hit 70 not long after that. Whether by desire or need, around the world, over the next decade being old will increasingly mean being economically active.
Read moreFrom
The World In 2020