Biosurveillance

The active gathering, analysis, and interpretation of data related to disease activity and threats to human and animal health delivers us faster early warning, detection, and situational awareness

In an era of increased globalization, public health and surveillance are playing an increased role in bio-security. Protecting us from the outbreak of disease has become an increasingly hot topic in the healthcare fraternity and one which is a focus for major investment. As part of global and national health security systems, public health surveillance is widely used for such activities as detecting new cases; estimating impact; modeling the spread of diseases; evaluating prevention and control measures and strategic prevention planning. To achieve these ambitious aims, it involves ongoing and systematic collection, analysis, interpretation and dissemination of a mass of health-related data of the population. An emerging field, known as bio-surveillance, has involved the expansion of the traditional public health surveillance into detected and predicting bioterrorist threats and disease outbreaks in animals and plants.
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Popularity: 3% [?]

Enjoying the Ordinary

Increasing satisfaction in the basics of life driven as a backlash against excess focuses more on making the most of the day-to-day and increasingly valuing and premiumising the ordinary

Even before the recent economic downturn in Europe and the US, there were several signals that more people in these regions were seeking a more simple, less complicated life. As one person commented “after fifty years of a consumerism bubble, maybe it is time we again focus on what is really important.” Allied to this some research shared at one of the early workshops pointed to a shift in attitudes in Europe to going back to basics, but with a twist. From restaurants to holidays to the simple day-to-day activities like catching a bus, in developed societies there is notable momentum building towards greater value in the ordinary. As austerity measures introduced into the same countries start to bite, some see that, rather than fighting against the economic necessity, many will embrace the opportunity to drop down a gear or two and enjoy the ordinary. Although evidently not currently on the radar in fast growing emerging economies where more not less is often the priority for many, some see that this attitude shift may spread as it embraces a more sustainable and more holistic view of life.
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Popularity: 3% [?]

Muslim Europe

With increasing economic migration into the EU, by 2020 the total Muslim population of Europe will be equivalent in size to that of Germany and a rising cultural and political influence.

Migration has been a contentious subject for a number of years and, as politicians continue to avoid the heart of the issue and media misrepresents many of the arguments, the real implications are misunderstood. Yet, in terms of impacts on other issues, migration is perhaps the archetypal cross-cutting issue. In his initial perspective on the future of migration, Professor Richard Black stated that “immigrant integration and increasing diversity in Europe and the North are significant questions for today’s societies.” From the varied discussions around the topic it is clear that in Europe there is a mounting population challenge that will lead to a shift in society. “Europe’s low white birth rate, coupled with faster multiplying migrants, will change fundamentally what we take to mean by European culture and society” is one pertinent view. Many increasingly see that, to sustain competitive growth in the face of declining fertility, Europe will support increased migration – and this will largely come from North Africa and the Near East. Although raw data is highly sensitive and hard to come by, leading commentators see that by 2020 economic migration will have started to change the multicultural balance in a new direction. Europe will become increasingly Muslim and if current trends continue over 10% of European nationals will be Muslim by the end of the decade.
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Popularity: 4% [?]

Automated People-care

Economically viable support for the ageing population will increasingly be supplied remotely by robotic assisted care and vital signs monitoring so that people can stay home for longer

One of the key challenges of an ageing population is in providing medical support at home. Given that people are living longer and that the costs of hospital-based care are so great, in many countries there is increasing focus on providing solutions that help people within their own space. The traditional approach for this has been through using carers who either live with patients or visit them on a regular timetable to take health measurements, advise on diet and exercise and ensure that isolation and loneliness is avoided: However, it has been consistently argued that by supporting people at home, the need to admit them into primary or secondary healthcare units is prevented and so both the social and financial impacts of entering hospital or care homes are prevented, or at least delayed.
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Popularity: 3% [?]

Bridging the Last Mile

With increasing demands to make public transport as flexible as individual transport, attention is focused on fixing the last mile gap between multi-modal hubs and the home / work destination

The concept of “the last mile” game into common language as telecommunications and cable television companies have sought to deliver faster and better services to their customers. Although they can get data to hubs and exchanges quickly and cheaply, when it comes to reaching their final destination and wires and cables have to fan out to multiple homes and offices, things get more complex. Not only is connecting the last mile more expensive than other parts of a network but it often suffers a loss of quality the further you are away from the local hub.
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Popularity: 3% [?]

Active Elderly

A wealthier, healthier older generation increasingly want and engage in leading more active lives taking up new sports, having 3^rd generation careers and becoming more politically involved

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) by 2020 there will be over a billion elderly people on the planet with 700m of these in the developing world. In China the proportion of elderly people is on course to double in a period of just thirty years between 2000 and 2030: In France a similar increase took 115 years. In the US researchers expect the number of people over 65 to move from just under 40m today to pass 70m by 2030. Although, as life expectancy continues to lengthen, the number of very old people will rise and so the burden on healthcare systems will increase, for the 55 to 75 age group, improved healthcare and healthier living will result in more active lives than preceding generations. Active ageing is on the rise and, with it, some fundamental changes in society ranging from employment and parenting to leisure and politics. By 2020, some see that 55 will be the new middle age and many of us will lead independent active lives until our late ‘70s.
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Popularity: 3% [?]

Drone Wars

Intelligent UAVs engage in aerial battles and choose their victims themselves as the race for wider and more focused military influence leads to the evolution and proliferation of assassination tools

Over the past couple of years, Afghanistan and Pakistan have seen a significant increase in the use of drone aircraft by the US military and other security services. They have become the proving ground for a fundamental shift in how military power is exercised, how information is collated and used and, ultimately, how wars will be fought going forward. With a military budget that accounts for nearly half of the world’s military spend, the US has become increasingly attracted to drones which cost a fraction of the price of a fighter but have the potential to provide equal if not greater presence. With over 7000 unmanned aircraft already being used by the US military alone, as other countries scale up their arsenal, by 2020 the majority of both surveillance and conflict will be undertaken by increasingly sophisticated and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs.
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Popularity: 4% [?]

Global Pandemics

Between now and 2020 we are likely to see 2 to 3 major pandemics which will start in regions with low public health and rapidly spread globally and so demand fast response

Since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 which killed over 50 million and infected 500 million, national governments have had an eye on the risks from widespread epidemics. With the advent of SARS a decade ago, the Avian flu pandemic in Asia in 2007 and the Swine flu pandemic that started in Mexico in 2009, the incidence and impacts of such events are causing more and more concern at international levels. The reasons for this are three fold: The speed at which pandemics can spread around the world has been significantly accelerated by increasing mass air travel; the consequential time available to track the source and initial progress is decreasing; and the capability to get the right drugs into the right place at the right time is not necessarily up to the challenge.
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Popularity: 4% [?]

Lease Everything

Rising sustainability imperatives, increasing cost of ownership and improved access align to shift the balance from ownership to access and we, as consumers, prefer to rent than buy everything

The concept of ownership is core to many cultures, but not all. It has also been seen to apply in different ways to different things. Owning your own home rather than renting it has, for example, been higher on the agenda in the US and the UK than in say Germany where renting is more widely accepted and housing is seen less as an investment. That said, even in the US, the rich have traditionally had the luxury of home ownership but the poor have had to lease. While the sub-prime bubble in the US temporarily gave a perception of ownership, as Michael Lewis quotes in his recent book, The Big Short, “A home without equity is just a rental without debt.” With declining values and increasing mortgage defaults, the ambition of owing your own home has become less important to many in the developed world, just as it is becoming an increasingly possible option for the growing middle classes in the developing world. Overall, many see that given the alternatives, with such a high value / high cost item as property, a shift is now taking place towards more widespread leasing of flats and houses. This move is however not restricted to property and is becoming increasingly prevalent in other areas.
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Popularity: 4% [?]

Almost Zero Waste

With escalating waste production, new attitudes, new approaches, new regulation and new business models will lead many economies to aim for an almost zero waste society.

Some predict that over the next 20 years we will double the amount of waste being generated. This is due to increasing population, increasing urbanisation and increasing consumption. The problem is shared with energy, food and water supplies – as people get richer the more they use. Waste is already the source of almost 4% of the world’s greenhouse gases, mostly in the form of methane from rotting food. However, although great strides have been made in dealing with it, the importance of waste management had been low on the collective agenda for too long.
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Popularity: 4% [?]